The bottom line
In August, China’s stainless crude steel plan hit a year-high 369.14万t, with the 300 series alone adding over 130,000 t. The same month, Indonesia’s major mills cut output −12.7% — because they could not fill orders. One side adds, one side shrinks. The result is blunt: from August into early September, the pricing power on flat products sits with the buyer. Negotiate the price now.
What happened
Mysteel’s August 5 survey lays out the supply picture plainly.
| Metric | Jul actual | Aug plan | MoM | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China, 43 mills, crude steel | 358.02万t | 369.14万t | +3.11% | +11.33% | Mysteel 2026-08-05 |
| of which 300 series | 183.92万t | 197.55万t | +7.41% | +13.67% | Mysteel |
| of which 200 series | 105.14万t | 102.13万t | −2.86% | +1.39% | Mysteel |
| of which 400 series | 68.70万t | 69.20万t | +0.73% | +21.32% | Mysteel |
| Indonesia major mills | — | ~50,000 t less MoM | −12.7% | — | Mysteel 2026-08-05 |
The 300 series added about 13.63万t in August, mostly from East China mills restarting after maintenance. July it was sliding (−13.7万t, concentrated in Jiangsu Delong, Jiangsu Zhongtuo); August it snapped back and overshot. The 400 series at +21.32% YoY is the fastest grower of the three — and 430 CRC export pressure shows it.
Indonesia is the opposite picture: weak order intake. Major mills are guided to cut ~50,000 t MoM in August. Those four words beat any analysis — Indonesia’s problem is orders, not capacity. Its export channels are being narrowed by tariff gates: Korea’s AD on Indonesian flat products is already in force (Indonesia’s CRC imports from Korea fell 97% YoY in June 2026); India’s DGTR anti-dumping case on China/Indonesia/Vietnam 300+400 series CRC flat products is advancing; Japan’s July temp duty on China/China-Taiwan nickel-bearing CRC made regional buyers cautious.
Demand offers no help. August is the traditional off-season; home-appliance, machinery, and property output are all down YoY — three major white goods output −6.3% YoY, air-conditioners −16.7% (Mysteel 2026-08-07). More supply, less demand. Price is what sits in the middle.
Spot is already reacting:
| Product | Price (元/t) | Date | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuxi Hongwang 304 CRC | 14,850 | 08-04 | +50 | Mysteel |
| Foshan Hongwang 304 CRC | 14,950 | 08-04 | +150 | Mysteel |
| Foshan Delong 304 CRC (base) | 14,400 | 08-06 | — | Mysteel |
| Foshan Hongwang 304 CRC | 14,500 | 08-06 | — | Mysteel |
| Foshan Yongjin 304 CRC | 14,800 | 08-06 | −100 | Mysteel |
| 304 HR 5-ft (Foshan) | 14,200 | 08-06 | flat | Mysteel |
| 430 CRC Jisco (base) | 7,600 | 08-06 | flat | Mysteel |
| 201 J1 CRC (base) | 8,500–8,600 | 08-06 | flat | Mysteel |
| 201 J2/J5 CRC (base) | 7,600–7,700 | 08-06 | flat | Mysteel |
Inventory has not collapsed, but has not cleared either. As of July 30, 89-sample social inventory was 110.22万t (+0.32% WoW); 300 series dipped 1,841 t to 67万t, while 200 and 400 series rose. SHFE stainless warrant stood at 87,472 t on 08-04 (−2,939 WoW) (Mysteel).
Cost took a roller-coaster this week. On Aug 6, a rumor said Indonesia’s Weda Bay Nickel won ~2,500万 wmt of added H2 RKAB quota — lifting the annual quota from 12 million wmt toward ~37 million wmt. LME nickel broke below 17,000 USD, intraday low 16,565 USD/t, close 16,685 (−2.65%); SHFE nickel closed 127,460元/t (−2.69%) the same day. Then Indonesia denied a formal approval, and futures snapped back. On Aug 4, LME 3M nickel closed 17,060 USD/t; LME nickel inventory 264,876 t (Argus, Mysteel, SMM).
One line on cost: nickel’s direction is set not by supply-demand, but by a single Jakarta document. Until that document lands, the cost floor is hollow.
What it means for buyers
- The negotiation window is open. China’s 300 series added ~130,000 t into the off-season. Mills’ hold on price gets worn down by inventory pressure in mid-to-late August. This is a rare stretch where supply hunts for the buyer.
- But it is short. The market is already pricing in “Gold September, Silver October.” The moment real restocking shows in late August, quotes harden. Buyer advantage clusters in the three-to-four weeks from mid-August to early September.
- Indonesian material is not the cheap option — it is the shrinking option. Indonesia cut because it lacks orders, not to defend price. Its in-hand orders will ship more selectively. Do not expect it to undercut for volume.
- The cost floor is unstable — do not anchor pricing to nickel. The formal RKAB supplementary document is expected Aug–Sep; its direction sets nickel. Locking long-term pricing before it lands means carrying Jakarta’s policy risk for them.
- 400 series is the underestimated risk. August plan +21.32% YoY, fastest of the three. 430 CRC has sat at 7,600元/t for a while; export pressure is still building.
Impact by product & region
| Product / grade | Aug supply | Price bias | Buyer move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 304 CRC / plate | 300-series plan 197.55万t, +7.41% MoM | Soft; Foshan Yongjin already −100元/t | 🟢 Lead negotiation item — push volume mid-to-late Aug |
| 304 HR coil / plate | Same | Weak-stable; Foshan 5-ft 14,200元/t flat | 🟢 Lock volume in parallel |
| 316L CRC / plate | High-grade supply relatively rigid | Stable, tracks nickel | 🟡 Price in batches; dodge single-day nickel swings |
| 430 CRC / plate | 400-series plan 69.20万t, +21.32% YoY | Weak; 7,600元/t flat | 🟢 Most clearly oversupplied — push price down |
| 201 CRC / plate | 200-series plan −2.86% MoM | Stable | 🟡 Cutting; less room than 300/400 |
| Region | Impact |
|---|---|
| China | Supply adds actively; off-season cannot absorb it; buyer’s market peaks in August |
| Indonesia | Passive cut on weak orders; export channels narrowed by tariffs; supply concentrates |
| Korea | Import sources keep narrowing (see POSCO anti-circumvention brief); avg import price up |
| India | DGTR anti-dumping on China/Indonesia/Vietnam CRC flat products advancing; preliminary window near |
| EU | China flat quota ~49,946 t/yr (HR Cat8 9,515 + CRC Cat9 40,431), tiny; melt & pour 细则 Aug 31, effective Oct 1 |
| Middle East / Russia-facing | Asian tariff-displaced volume may shift here; regional quotes face downward pressure |
What to do now
- Negotiate 304 and 430 volume in mid-to-late August. One is the biggest plan increase, the other the fastest YoY grower — exactly the material mills most need to move. Cite Mysteel’s 369.14万t and 197.55万t as leverage.
- Split pricing and fixed price. 316L and other nickel-linked grades: price in batches. 304/430 and other clearly oversupplied grades: fix the price now, before September’s peak-season expectations bite.
- Watch two dates: Indonesia’s formal RKAB supplementary document (Aug–Sep) and the EU melt & pour 细则 (Aug 31). The day either lands, cost expectations and channel expectations reprice together.
- Keep EU orders clearing in the first two weeks of each quarter. China’s flat annual quota is under 50,000 t; the over-quota tariff rose from 25% to 50%. First-come, first-served — two weeks late is paying double duty.
- Do not treat Indonesia as a backup. It is cutting for lack of orders, not to defend price. If you need Indonesian material, lock delivery now — not in September.
Data sources
China Aug crude plan 369.14万t (+3.11% MoM, +11.33% YoY): Mysteel 43-mill survey, 2026-08-05. 300-series 197.55万t (+7.41% MoM, +13.67% YoY; +13.63万t vs Jul). 200-series 102.13万t (−2.86% MoM). 400-series 69.20万t (+0.73% MoM, +21.32% YoY). Indonesia Aug −12.7% (~50,000 t less) on weak orders: Mysteel / SteelMint. Three white goods −6.3% YoY, AC −16.7%: Mysteel 2026-08-07. Social inventory 110.22万t (+0.32% WoW), 300-series 67万t: Mysteel 2026-07-30. SHFE warrant 87,472 t (−2,939 WoW): SHFE / Mysteel 2026-08-04. Spot: Mysteel 2026-08-04, 08-06. LME 3M nickel 17,060 USD/t (08-04); Aug 6 intraday low 16,565, close 16,685 (−2.65%); SHFE nickel 127,460元/t (−2.69%); LME inventory 264,876 t: LME / Argus / SMM. WBN RKAB: ~2,500万 wmt added, annual ~37 million wmt (rumor; Indonesia denied formal approval): Mysteel / SMM 2026-08-06. EU China flat quota Cat8 9,515 + Cat9 40,431 ≈ 49,946 t/yr; over-quota 50%: EU 2026/1457, (EU) 2026/1384. Buyer window mid-Aug–early Sep: inferred from plan, inventory, seasonality.
How Still Steel Supports the Project
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