One-line conclusion: China’s August stainless schedule is 369.14 万吨, the highest for the period in recent years, but social inventory turned down first on August 6 while export quotes rose about 30 USD/t at the same time. This is not demand recovering—it is cost pushing prices up. For buyers chasing low prices, the window before mid-August is the relatively comfortable one of this round.
What happened
August’s stainless market is a bit split. On one side, mills are running at full throttle. On the other, inventory and end-user consumption are sluggish, yet prices are climbing.
Mysteel reports August stainless crude-steel scheduled output totals 369.14 万吨, up 3.11% MoM and 11.33% YoY. This volume not only exceeds July’s 359.99 万吨, it sits at a high level for the period in past years. Mills are clearly betting on “Golden September”—the restocking window before the traditional peak season.
The odd part is inventory. As of August 6, total social stainless inventory across 89 major-market warehouses was 108.70 万吨, down 1.39% WoW, ending two consecutive weeks of build-up. A week earlier, on July 31, the figure was still 110.22 万吨 and climbing.
| Indicator | Value | Change | Scope / Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| August stainless crude-steel schedule | 369.14 万吨 | MoM +3.11%, YoY +11.33% | Cited; Mysteel, 2026-08-06 |
| July stainless crude-steel schedule | 359.99 万吨 | MoM +2.4%, YoY +12.12% | Cited; Mysteel |
| Social inventory (Aug 6, 89 warehouses) | 108.70 万吨 | WoW -1.39% | Cited; Mysteel |
| Social inventory (Jul 31) | 110.22 万吨 | WoW +0.32% | Cited; SMM |
| 304 cold-rolled production cost (Aug 3) | 14,417 yuan/t | WoW +17 yuan (+0.12%) | Cited; SMM |
| 8–12% NPI average (Aug 3) | 1,131.5 yuan/nickel-point | WoW +8 yuan | Cited; SMM |
| High-carbon ferrochrome market price | 7,800–8,100 yuan/50 base-ton (Aug range expectation) | August mill tender down another 200 yuan | Cited; Lange Steel |
| Export FOB quote | Up about 30 USD/t MoM | — | Cited; SunSirs, 2026-08-04 |
| 2026 H1 stainless crude-steel output | 2,107.9 万吨 | YoY +7.19% | Cited; China Customs / SunSirs |
| 2026 H1 stainless exports | 205.58 万吨 | YoY -17.77% | Cited; China Customs |
On the spot side, on August 4 in Foshan, 304 cold-rolled Delong mainstream base price was 14,550 yuan/t, up 100; Hongwang 14,650 yuan/t, up 150; Yongjin 14,900 yuan/t, flat. 304 hot-rolled five-foot was 14,200 yuan/t, flat. 430 cold-rolled Jisco base price was 7,600 yuan/t, unmoved. SunSirs’ stainless benchmark on August 5 was 14,800 yuan/t, still 0.31% below the month-start 14,846.67 yuan/t.
The 300 series is rising; the 400 series is not. This split is no accident.
The cost line: nickel steady, chrome weak—supportive but not pushing up
The 300 series tracks nickel. Indonesia’s RKAB supplementary quota filing window closed on July 31, with approval results landing through August–September. The mining minister signaled quotas will be “moderately loosened”—not a blanket opening—with approvals tilted toward compliant miners paying a higher royalty ratio; the specific added volume is not yet announced. In plain terms: supply growth has a ceiling, and the market must game out two months in an information vacuum. 8–12% NPI climbed to 1,131.5 yuan/nickel-point, and Indonesia’s NPI export clearance still faces disruptions, so the cost floor holds.
The 400 series tracks chrome, in the opposite direction. Chrome ore imports have hit a historic high; loose supply is pressing ore prices. Ferrochrome plants keep high operating rates as capacity keeps releasing; the August mill tender fell another 200 yuan, with high-carbon ferrochrome running in the 7,800–8,100 yuan/50 base-ton range. Ferrochrome price is already close to smelting cost, and the market is hoping concentrated maintenance in mid-to-late month eases supply pressure. If maintenance falls short, the market will keep testing cost support.
So 304 gets a bid, 430 gets none—at the base, two feedstocks, two directions.
The demand line: domestic weak, export just waking
Domestic is a genuine off-season. August’s three major white-goods schedules total 2,833 万台, down 6.3% from actual production a year earlier; of these, household air conditioners 1,073 万台, down 16.7% YoY; refrigerators 877 万台, up a slight 0.7%. Appliances are the 400 series’ main battlefield, and this number explains why 430 cannot rise. Real estate and construction decoration stay flat in the heat.
Overseas is hovering at the edge of recovery. The summer lull is near its end; Southeast Asia’s procurement shows tentative signs of recovery, and export quotes rose passively about 30 USD/t. But be clear: this is a passive follow-on rise, not demand-driven proactive pricing. The H1 hole of 205.58 万吨 exports, down 17.77% YoY, is still there, and overseas barriers are tightening—Japan just landed a provisional AD duty of up to 42.1%, and the EU raised its over-quota tariff from 25% to 50% from July 1.
Impact by product and region
| Product / grade | Cost direction | August price tendency | Procurement advice |
|---|---|---|---|
| 304 / 316 cold-rolled sheet & coil | Nickel steady to firm, cost 14,417 yuan/t slightly up | Mildly up, deals not keeping up | Lock in batches on dips before mid-August; do not chase high-priced material |
| 304 hot-rolled sheet & coil | Same as above | Relatively stable (around 14,200 yuan/t) | Prefer hot-rolled when its spread to cold-rolled narrows |
| 430 / 409 cold-rolled sheet & coil | Ferrochrome at cost, tender down another 200 yuan | Weak-stable, stuck at 7,600 yuan/t | Best negotiation window; extend order cycles |
| 200-series cold-rolled | Nickel-driven | Small up-tick at 8,500–8,600 yuan/t | Chase highs with caution; thin trading |
By region: Southeast Asia procurement already shows recovery signs and is the smoothest channel right now; the EU is bound by the 50% over-quota tariff and quota (China’s flat-products country quota totals about 49,946 t/yr: Cat 8 hot-rolled 9,515 t + Cat 9 cold-rolled 40,431 t)—clear customs in the first two weeks of each quarter; Japan is effectively restricted by the anti-dumping duty; the Middle East, Africa and South America are the main destinations absorbing H1 export spillover, with relatively ample supply and wide negotiation room.
What to do now
- The window before mid-August is the relatively comfortable buying window of this round. High scheduled output + weak domestic off-season + slow inventory drawdown together suppress prices; but cost is creeping up, and the later you wait, the more expensive it gets.
- Lock the 300 series in batches; be more proactive on the 400 series. The 430 cost side is collapsing—ferrochrome is at smelting cost, and mills’ list-price firmness will not hold much longer. This is a good moment to extend order cycles.
- Watch two key August–September variables: Indonesia’s final RKAB approval, and whether ferrochrome’s mid-to-late-month concentrated maintenance materializes. The former sets the 300-series cost floor; the latter decides whether the 400 series can fall further.
- Place EU orders in the first two weeks of the quarter. China’s flat-products country quota is tiny, first-come first-served, quarter-managed—miss it and it is the 50% tariff.
- For those serving Japan, verify the origin plan in parallel. Cold-rolled goods with nickel >0.6% are already restricted for Japan; Vietnam and South Korea origins need to be set up early.
FAQ
Q1: August output hit a record for the period, so why are prices still rising? A: The rise is driven by cost, not demand. 8–12% NPI rose to 1,131.5 yuan/nickel-point and 304 cold-rolled production cost reached 14,417 yuan/t, so mills are strongly defending prices. But transactions are not keeping up—after the rise, high-priced material struggles to move, actual deals concentrate on low-priced stock, and the market is heavy with wait-and-see sentiment.
Q2: Why are 430 and 304 moving in opposite directions? A: Their cost drivers are completely different. 304 follows nickel; the tightening expectation of Indonesia’s RKAB quota supports nickel prices. 430 follows chrome; chrome ore imports hit a historic high, ferrochrome plants run at high operating rates, and the August tender price fell another 200 yuan to the 7,800–8,100 yuan/50 base-ton range, so cost is collapsing. Combined with white-goods demand down 6.3% YoY, 430 lacks upward momentum.
Q3: Order now or wait? A: Before mid-August is relatively favorable. High scheduled output, a weak domestic off-season and slow inventory drawdown together suppress prices, while cost is creeping up. Recommend locking the 300 series in batches and avoiding chasing highs, while being more proactive on the 400 series by extending order cycles. The key variables are the final Indonesia RKAB approval in August–September and whether ferrochrome’s mid-to-late-month maintenance materializes.
Data provenance
| Data point | Source | Date | Cited / Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| August schedule 369.14 万吨 (+3.11% / +11.33%) | Mysteel | 2026-08-06 | Cited |
| Aug 6 social inventory 108.70 万吨 (-1.39%) | Mysteel, 89-warehouse scope | 2026-08-06 | Cited |
| Jul 31 social inventory 110.22 万吨 (+0.32%) | SMM | 2026-07-31 | Cited |
| 304 cold-rolled production cost 14,417 yuan/t (+17) | SMM | 2026-08-03 | Cited |
| 8–12% NPI 1,131.5 yuan/nickel-point (+8) | SMM | 2026-08-03 | Cited |
| High-carbon ferrochrome 7,800–8,100 yuan/50 base-ton, Aug tender down 200 yuan | Lange Steel | 2026-08-03 | Cited |
| Foshan spot 304 cold-rolled 14,550 / 14,650 / 14,900, 430 cold-rolled 7,600 | Mysteel Foshan daily | 2026-08-04 | Cited |
| SunSirs stainless benchmark 14,800 yuan/t (-0.31%) | SunSirs | 2026-08-05 | Cited |
| Export quote up about 30 USD/t | SunSirs | 2026-08-04 | Cited |
| August three white-goods schedule 2,833 万台 (-6.3%), AC 1,073 万台 (-16.7%) | ChinaIOL, through Huatai Futures | 2026-08-04 | Cited |
| Indonesia RKAB supplementary window closed 7/31, lands Aug–Sep, “moderately loosened” | Mysteel, Indonesia mining ministry statement | 2026-08-06 | Cited |
| 2026 H1 crude-steel output 2,107.9 万吨 (+7.19%), exports 205.58 万吨 (-17.77%) | China Customs / SunSirs | 2026-07-22 | Cited |
| EU quota and 50% over-quota tariff | Regulation (EU) 2026/1384, (EU) 2026/1457 | Effective 2026-06-29 / 07-01 | Cited |
| Japan provisional AD duty up to 42.1% | Japan MOF/METI | 2026-07-03 | Cited |
How Still Steel Supports the Project
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