Nickel Holds Firm, Indonesia RKAB Quota Tightens: 304 Cost Floor Moves Up
One-line takeaway Indonesia locked its 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota at 2.5–2.6 hundred million tonnes. No national increase. Nickel pig iron is tight. Prices are firm. The 304 cost floor just rose. Lock your 304 raw material now — or quote floating. And push 430/409 while chrome iron softens.
What happened
Since early August, the nickel chain has been strong. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed it: the 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota stays at 2.5–2.6 hundred million tonnes. No increase nationwide. The late-July supplementary quota window is closed. Results land in August–September (Guangfa Futures, 2026-08-04).
Prices (Mysteel 2026-08-04; sina 2026-08-03):
| Indicator | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| LME nickel | 17,140 USD/tonne | +195 (+1.15%) |
| SHFE nickel 2609 | ~131,900 yuan/tonne | +640 |
| 1# nickel, Yangtze spot | 132,750 yuan/tonne | +1,150 |
| High-nickel pig iron Ni:10–13% (delivered, tax incl.) | 1,145 yuan per nickel unit | +5 |
| Indonesia NPI FOB | 148 USD per nickel unit | +1 |
| LME nickel inventory | 26.75 万吨 | drawing down |
Two more things. First: a power disturbance in Indonesian parks cut high-grade NPI output. Tradable spot is tight. Holders are holding price (Guangfa Futures). Second: the 100+ nickel-product ships stranded by the rare-earth export ban — on Aug 4 Indonesia clarified the ban only hits pure rare earth, not the trace rare earth in nickel/tin derivatives. Ships are back. Nickel exports are normal again.
What it means for buyers
Nickel is the core raw material for 300-series (304/316). With NPI at 1,145 yuan per nickel unit and LME nickel back above 17,000 USD, the 304 cold-rolled cost floor is genuinely higher. But demand is still soft: Zhonglianjin’s August schedule is 363.88 万吨 (+4.44 万吨 MoM), 300-series recovery adds supply pressure; appliances, kitchens, décor buy only on need, inventory builds slowly. So it’s “cost support below, weak upside drive” — main range 14,300–15,200 yuan/tonne (Market Close Flash, 2026-08-04).
For Charlie: 304 (nickel series) costs are squeezed. 430/409 (chrome series, low nickel) barely feel nickel — and chrome iron is still falling. Room to discount.
Impact by product and region
| Product | Cost direction | Action for Charlie |
|---|---|---|
| 304/316 (nickel flat products) | Strong support, floor up | Raise quotes with cost; avoid inverted low long orders |
| 201 (low nickel) | Moderately nickel-driven | Follow 304 rhythm; lock cautiously |
| 430/409 (chrome series) | Chrome iron weak, cost down | Discount to grab orders; hedge 304’s high cost |
| Region | — | Indonesia (tight raw material), China (cost up), South America/Eastern Europe (Charlie export — pass cost to customers) |
What to do now
- Lock 304 raw material first. NPI near 1145 yuan per nickel unit, supply tight — lock if you can, or quote a “raw-material-linked floating price.”
- Don’t rush cheap long orders. Nickel oscillates between support and noise, range 14,300–15,200. Don’t nail long orders flat.
- Push the 430/409 combo. Chrome iron down, 400-series cost down — give customers an alternative that protects margin and holds the order.
- Watch the Aug–Sept Indonesia RKAB supplementary quota. It decides marginal nickel ore supply — the switch for where cost goes next.
- Track Indonesia NPI customs clearance and park power supply. They decide tradable spot — and whether price-holding holds.
To lock raw material or calculate 304 order cost, contact the Still Steel sales team with your specs and delivery time.
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Send the grade, dimensions, annual volume and application to vip@still-steel.com, or discuss the requirement on WhatsApp.